Written by David Dodge  

How to Help “Forever Renters” Finally Break Into Homeownership in 2025–2026

I still remember the exact moment I realized something had gone seriously wrong in the housing market.

It was a Tuesday afternoon in late October. I was on the phone with a 38-year-old software engineer named Alex. Great job, six-figure income, zero debt except a modest car note, and a rent payment that had just jumped another $400 a month. He told me, voice flat, “I give up. I’m going to be renting until I’m fifty at this rate.”

Then last week, the National Association of REALTORS® dropped its 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, and the headline number hit like a gut punch: the typical first-time buyer is now 40 years old. Forty. For the first time in the survey’s 44-year history. And only 21% of sales went to first-timers—the lowest share ever recorded.

That’s not a blip. That’s a generational tragedy unfolding in slow motion.

If you’re reading this and you’re under 45, there’s a decent chance you feel the same quiet panic Alex did. You’ve run the numbers a hundred times. You watch your rent climb faster than your 401(k). You see friends in other countries buy apartments with 5% down while you’re staring at 8% interest rates and homes that cost eight times your salary. You’re not lazy. You’re not “bad with money.” You’re just living through the toughest affordability environment since the 1940s.

But here’s the part most people miss: the game isn’t over. It’s just changed. And the people who figure out the new rules in 2025–2026 are going to be the ones who finally own something.

I’ve spent the last eighteen months helping “forever renters” in exactly this situation close on their first properties. Some paid $650,000 for a condo in Denver with only $18,000 down. Others bought fourplexes in the Midwest, cash-flowing $800 a month from day one. A few even moved to Europe for a year, stacked cash, and came back to pounce.

These aren’t unicorn stories. They’re repeatable strategies built for the world we actually live in—not the 2019 playbook everyone still quotes.

Let’s walk through why it feels impossible, why it actually isn’t, and exactly what you can do about it starting next week.

Part 1: The Math That Broke the Dream

Everyone likes to say “it’s interest rates” or “it’s inventory,” but the reality is uglier and more specific.

Here’s what happened between 2020 and 2025 in most major metros:

• Median home price: +48–62%
• 30-year fixed rate: 2.7% → 6.8–7.4%
• Average renter household income: +19%
• Average landlord’s profit margin: exploded (rents up 35–40% nationally)

Do the mortgage payment calculation on that, and you get a monthly nut that’s roughly 95–115% higher than it was five years ago for the same house.

That’s not inflation. That’s a phase shift.

The old rule of thumb—“your house payment should be no more than 28% of gross income”—is dead for anyone earning under $150k in a coastal or sunbelt city. Today the median first-time buyer is spending 41% of their income on housing. Forty-one.

And yet… people are still buying. Just later in life, with bigger down payments, and often with help.

So if you’re 32 or 37 or 42 and feeling behind, you’re not behind. You’re exactly average now. The timeline moved. Your job is to refuse to let it move again.

Part 2: Stop Waiting for the Crash That Isn’t Coming

Every week, someone sends me a TikTok of some guy in a hoodie yelling “Crash incoming 2025!! 50% off houses!!” and asks if they should wait.

My answer is always the same: you’re an adult. Run the math yourself.

Here’s the cold reality for 2025–2026:

1. 10–11% mortgage rates would be required to force mass distress selling (we saw 18% in 1981 and prices still only fell ~15% nominally).
2. Most homeowners today have 3–4% rates. They’re not selling unless they die or divorce.
3. Boomer equity is $32 trillion. They’re not fire-selling McMansions to fund nursing homes—they’re doing reverse mortgages or passing houses to kids.
4. New construction is running 35–40% below demographic demand. The shortage gets worse, not better.

In other words, the “crash” scenario requires multiple once-in-a-century events to line up perfectly. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not even close.

Waiting for 2021 pricing with 2025 incomes is like sitting on the airport curb waiting for $99 tickets to Hawaii to come back. You’ll die on that curb.

The winners right now are the ones who treat homeownership as a 3-to-5-year financial plan, not a 6-month lottery ticket.

Part 3: The 2025–2026 Playbook (Strategies That Actually Work Right Now)

Here are the nine moves I’m using with clients closing deals in this market. Pick two or three that fit your life and run.

1. Hunt the “Locked-In Boomer” Inventory (The Soft Underbelly Nobody Talks About)

The headline inventory number looks low, but dig into the data and you see a quiet flood coming from one specific group: empty-nest boomers who bought in the 1990s–early 2000s at 6–8% rates and now have 3% mortgages they don’t want to give up.

They’re not listing traditionally because they don’t want to move “up” and pay 7%. But many will quietly sell or lease-option to a nice young couple if the deal lets them keep their low rate.

How to find them:

• Drive established neighborhoods on Sunday mornings. Look for houses with perfect lawns but zero toys/bikes. Knock and say, “My wife and I love your home. Would you ever consider selling in the next few years without listing it publicly?”
• Mail handwritten letters (yes, really) to owners who have lived in the home 25+ years and are 68–78 years old. Offer to buy with a 2-year leaseback at their current payment so they keep the low rate.

I’ve seen 3–6% off market prices and zero bidding wars doing this. It’s slow, but it works.

2. Assume Someone Else’s 2–3% Mortgage (The Closest Thing to a Time Machine)

About 1 in 8 listings right now has an assumable FHA or VA loan at 2.5–3.75%. Most buyers and even most agents have no idea how to do it, so these houses sit.

The math is stupid:

• $400,000 original loan at 3.125%
• Current balance ~$360,000
• You bring $140,000 down and assume the $360k at 3.125%
• Payment ~$1,540 + taxes/insurance
• Comparable new loan at 6.5%: ~$2,650/month

You literally save $1,100 a month for 30 years.

Downsides: slower processing (60–90 days), and you usually need 20–30% down. But if you’ve been renting for years, you probably have more cash than you think.

Pro tip: search “assumable” on the MLS or use a site like RoostAssumable.com or Billy Ross’s AssumeList.

3. House-Hack Your Way In (Still the Single Best Wealth Accelerator)

If you can stomach roommates or a mother-in-law suite, buy a duplex–fourplex with an FHA 3.5% down loan and let the tenants pay 75–100% of your mortgage.

Example I closed last month in Kansas City:

• $485,000 fourplex
• $17,000 down (3.5%)
• Rents total $4,200/month
• Mortgage + taxes + insurance = $3,650
• Tenant pays almost everything, client lives fre,e and builds $800/month equity.

Five years from now they sell or refinance, pull out $250k tax-free, and buy a single-family. Rinse, repeat, retire early.

4. Temporary 2/1 Buydowns Are Back (And Builders Are Desperate)

Builders have 70+ days of unsold inventory in many sunbelt markets—the highest since 2009. They’ll pay to buy down your rate 2 points for the first two years (6.5% → 4.5% year 1, 5.5% year 2, then 6.5% forever).

That shaves $600–$1,200/month off your payment exactly when you need it most. By year three your income has probably risen enough to handle the reset.

5. Co-Buy with Friends (But Do It Smart, Not Dumb)

Splitting a $900k house with your best friend sounds fun until someone gets married or transferred.

Do it right:

• Form an LLC or Tenants-in-Common agreement with a bulletproof operating agreement (use an attorney, $2–3k well spent).
• Everyone gets their own loan, or one person buys and others pay “rent” that builds equity via a side agreement.
• Plan the exit upfront—first right of refusal, 5-year shotgun clause, etc.

I’m seeing engineers, nurses, teachers—people who would never qualify alone—buy $1.2M townhouses together in Seattle and Denver. Five years later they either keep it as a rental or one buys the other out with massive appreciation.

6. The “Barbell” Location Strategy

Live in a VHCOL city? Consider buying in a cheaper secondary city you actually like and renting it out for a few years while you keep stacking.

Example: San Francisco tech couple buys a new construction 4-bed/3-bath in Boise for $650k, rents it for $3,600 (mortgage $3,400). They house-hack it themselves in 2028 when they’re ready for kids and schools.

You get today’s rates, appreciation, and depreciation tax benefits while still living where the jobs are.

7. Non-QM and DSCR Loans (The “Investor” Loans Normal People Can Now Use)

Banks have new products for self-employed or high-income W2 borrowers who don’t fit the 43% DTI box.

• Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loans qualify based on the property’s rent, not your income.
• Bank statement loans for 1099 workers.
• Asset depletion mortgages, if your parents want to “gift” without actually gifting.

These rates are 7.5–9%, but if you’re house-hacking or buying a duplex, the payment doesn’t matter—cash flow does.

8. Relocate to the “Middle Class Millionaire” Cities

Places where $150k household income still buys a 4-bed/3-bath on a quarter acre, built after 1990, good schools, 20-minute commute:

Spokane, Boise, Colorado Springs, Grand Rapids, Des Moines, Omaha, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Huntsville, Knoxville, Greensboro, Greenville SC, Raleigh-Durham (still), San Antonio (parts), Kansas City (parts).

You’ll feel rich on day one instead of house-poor.

9. The Nuclear Option: Move Abroad for 12–36 Months

I have six clients who moved to Portugal, Spain, or Mexico in 2023–2024, lived on $2,500/month total while earning US remote income, saved $80-120k, then came back and bought with 25–40% down.

Golden visa programs, digital nomad visas, and geo-arbitrage are real. A year feels long until you realize you just cut 8 years off the timeline.

Part 4: Your 36-Month “Break the Rent Cycle” Plan

Stop thinking “I need to buy a house in the next 6 months” and start thinking “I need to own real estate by my 40th birthday, no matter what.”

Here’s the exact roadmap I give clients:

Months 1–6: Defense

• Freeze lifestyle. No new cars, no $15 cocktails, no “I deserve this” shopping.
• Track every dollar for 90 days. You’ll find $800–2,000/month.
• Automate savings into high-yield (4.5–5.3% right now).

Months 6–18: Offense

• Raise income 20% (side hustle, certification, negotiation, new job).
• Pick 1–2 strategies from above and master them.
• Build your team: a lender who does assumables, an investor-friendly agent, real estate attorney.

Months 18–36: Execution

• Make 3–10 offers per month until something sticks.
• Be willing to act weird (knock on doors, write letters, move cities, buy with friends).
• Close. Move in. Throw the biggest housewarming party of your life.

The Mindset Shift That Changes Everything

The biggest lie we were sold is that homeownership is supposed to be “comfortable” and happen by 30.

My parents bought their first house at 27 with 5% down and a 9.5% interest rate in 1986. They ate spaghetti five nights a week for two years. Nobody called them privileged.

Your version of that story just looks different—maybe it’s a duplex in Tulsa, maybe it’s assuming a 3% loan in Phoenix, maybe it’s moving to Portugal for 18 months and coming back with a 40% down payment.

Hard doesn’t mean impossible. It means the reward is bigger.

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: 2025–2026 is still a brutal market for first-timers. But brutal markets create the best stories.

Ten years from now, you’ll either be telling your kids how you “somehow made it work” in the craziest market ever… or you’ll be explaining why you gave up and kept paying someone else’s mortgage.

I know which story I want for you.

If you’re serious about breaking the rent cycle in the next 36 months, I have something for you.

I put together a 45-minute “First-Time Buyer Breakthrough” session where we map your exact numbers—income, savings rate, credit, location options—and build your personalized 2025–2026 plan. I’ll show you which of the nine strategies above fit your life and introduce you to the lenders and agents making them happen right now.

These sessions are free because if you become a client later, great. If not, at least you leave with clarity.

I only open 20 spots a month because they’re actual deep-dive calls, not sales pitches.

Click the link below, grab a spot, and let’s write the version of your story that starts with “Remember when everyone said it was impossible?”

You’re not too late. You’re just on time for a different kind of win.

Let’s go get it.